Focus on Hungary

From July 1 to December 31, 2024, Hungary held the presidency of the EU Council. The presidency underscored Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's foreign policy approach: a clear separation between communication and day-to-day operations. Despite growing tensions between Orbán and EU leaders, as well as unresolved disputes with key EU institutions, the Hungarian presidency has done its work accordingly in the second half of 2024. 

For Hungary’s prime minister, who has backed Donald Trump for years, a victory in the U.S. presidential election means more than a symbolic win – it could also deliver concrete advantages. In the short term, such a result would bolster Viktor Orbán’s position both internationally and domestically. However, differences in political priorities and in economic interests in particular could create friction between Washington and Budapest in the medium to long term. Given Trump’s unpredictability, there is no guarantee that Orbán’s promises – such as swift peace in Ukraine and an economic boom – will come to pass. 

In this article, I search for the reasons for the enormous success of Péter Magyar and his party, the Tisza Party, within a very short period of time. The Tisza Party could be the strongest challenger to the Orbán regime in 2026 and perhaps even its defeater after 16 years. Could the Orbán illiberal state disappear?

The Hungarian government has embarked on a model shift that may offer the illusion of a solution in the short term, but in the long term, it could eat up our future. The economic philosophy of the Hungarian government has changed radically in recent years. Evidence of this change includes the relocation of dozens of battery factories and the Aliens Act passed last December.

Orbán aims to make a big impact during Hungary's six-month EU presidency, starting with a controversial visit to Moscow. Shortly after, his party, Fidesz, joined the far-right Patriots alliance in the European Parliament—a long-time goal for Orbán, despite its likely marginal influence. Betting on Trump's re-election, Orbán still ensured a handshake with Biden at the NATO summit. Meanwhile, EU leaders are increasingly sidelining him during his presidency.

Already within its first few weeks, Hungary’s Council presidency has managed to outrage many international commentators. Still, there are indications that Viktor Orbán’s six-month gig in Brussels aims to be first and foremost a PR stunt to sell the Hungarian prime minister and his ideas to the European public. In Europe, this mission is supported by the Mathias Corvinus Collegium, Hungary’s principal “talent promotion institution”. 

Fidesz performed worse in terms of vote share than in any previous European Parliament election; however, this does not mean they were a total failure. The election results are unlikely to derail the Orbán regime in the short term, but a newcomer has entered the political arena who could be a serious challenger in the 2026 parliamentary election. At the European level, since the far-right parties are likely to remain fragmented due to ideological and political differences, their influence on decision-making remains limited, while Orbán seems to be swimming against the tide even on the far right.

Cooperation among the countries of the Visegrád Group is directly dependent on the current political situation in each country. In recent years, the alliance has attracted attention for its criticisms of Southern European countries and its anti-immigration rhetoric. While the more liberal of the Visegrád countries tend to blindly imitate the West, the nationalists dream of a conservative Central Europe.