Focus on Hungary

There will be — but it is unlikely to arise from the current so-called “left-wing” parties. The European Parliamentary elections have shown that the Democratic Coalition (DK) has not, after all, become the strongest force in the opposition — not even after taking the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) and Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) under its wing. They have all merely shrunk simultaneously. Has the political left collapsed? On the contrary: it may now have a real chance to be born.

With less than a year to go until the next Hungarian parliamentary elections, Viktor Orbán’s Government appears to have a weak hand in its communications battles with its new political opponent, Péter Magyar’s Tisza party. To cover up the challenges it faces, the administration has turned up the heat under the independent media, NGOs, and opposition parties, playing from the same old authoritarian playbook of threatening a free civil society.

The Hungarian Government is giving itself the power to deprive any company or organisation of its revenues on the grounds of protecting the country's sovereignty. The hysteria against foreign agents is becoming insane. The main enemies are Ukraine and the EU institutions.

In his annual state of the nation address at the end of February, “looking back from the cooling shade of the American electoral victory”, Hungary’s Prime Minister reinforced his ideological alignment with Donald Trump by announcing draconian measures against those whom he rhetorically frames as enemies of his patriotic, illiberal agenda – NGOs, the LGBTQ+ community, the opposition, and independent media – and doctrinally entrenched himself alongside Trump on Ukraine and against migrants. Viktor Orbán considers Trump “the only man who can save the Western world, and probably the human beings on the globe as well”. 

From further manipulation of the electoral system to outright annulment of results, there are many ways in which the Orbán regime could prevent the current opposition from winning. What is certain is that repression will intensify over the next year; the only question is how severe it will be.

After the Prime Minister's announcement banning the 2025 Pride parade, MPs of the governing majority swiftly passed constitutional amendments. These new laws ban assemblies that might breach the "LGBTQI Propaganda" Law, impose fines on participants, and allow police to use facial recognition technology to identify them. This amendment, set to take effect on 15 April 2025, violates the rights of LGBTQI people and their supporters, while also infringing on the privacy of all citizens by enabling mass surveillance and stoking fear among those who oppose the government's policies.

From July 1 to December 31, 2024, Hungary held the presidency of the EU Council. The presidency underscored Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's foreign policy approach: a clear separation between communication and day-to-day operations. Despite growing tensions between Orbán and EU leaders, as well as unresolved disputes with key EU institutions, the Hungarian presidency has done its work accordingly in the second half of 2024. 

For Hungary’s prime minister, who has backed Donald Trump for years, a victory in the U.S. presidential election means more than a symbolic win – it could also deliver concrete advantages. In the short term, such a result would bolster Viktor Orbán’s position both internationally and domestically. However, differences in political priorities and in economic interests in particular could create friction between Washington and Budapest in the medium to long term. Given Trump’s unpredictability, there is no guarantee that Orbán’s promises – such as swift peace in Ukraine and an economic boom – will come to pass. 

In this article, I search for the reasons for the enormous success of Péter Magyar and his party, the Tisza Party, within a very short period of time. The Tisza Party could be the strongest challenger to the Orbán regime in 2026 and perhaps even its defeater after 16 years. Could the Orbán illiberal state disappear?

The Hungarian government has embarked on a model shift that may offer the illusion of a solution in the short term, but in the long term, it could eat up our future. The economic philosophy of the Hungarian government has changed radically in recent years. Evidence of this change includes the relocation of dozens of battery factories and the Aliens Act passed last December.