Translation Gwendolyn Albert
The preparation of the priorities for the EU Presidency is a very long-term process. It involves not just representatives of the government and ministries, but also experts through their participation in professional groups. If these priorities are to be the right ones, they must not only be well-designed, they must also respond to current events in the world and in the EU itself.
Few countries have ever had such a difficult time setting priorities for their presidencies as has the Czech Republic. For quite some time it seemed the Lisbon Treaty would take effect prior to January 2009, which would have meant rather different rules of the game for the presiding country. The designers of the priorities also had to take into consideration the fact that European Parliamentary elections will take place during the Czech Presidency, as well as the fact that the mandate of the current European Commission, led by José Manuel Barroso, will come to an end. This means the EP will probably only adopt a small amount of legislation, and the Commission will not be submitting proposals for any significantly new political initiatives.
In addition to its own agenda, which each always country does its best to reflect in its priorities, the presiding country must entertain topics which the EU has already long planned to resolve. Once again, the Czech Republic is not in an enviable situation. Sensitive questions await us, such as the discussion on the future of the Lisbon Treaty, the EU financial plan after 2013, and the question of reforming the Common Agricultural Policy. At the last minute the Czech priorities have had to accommodate the advent of the financial crisis, while immediately after taking over the presidency Czech diplomacy had to respond to the situation in Gaza.
Because the Czech Republic will not be operating under easy conditions, one Swedish diplomat has labeled the Czech Presidency the presidency from hell. It is therefore a question whether the Czech Republic should even attempt to set bold foreign policy priorities. We are a small country and it will be much more difficult for us to advocate a foreign policy than it has been for France, for example. However, two factors are combining to ensure that our priorities in external relations will definitely not be labeled immodest. Firstly, the presidency is a unique opportunity for us to lead a bloc which has significant weight in the world. The Czech PM and Foreign Minister will not be speaking only for a state of 10 million people, but for a bloc which has almost half a billion inhabitants. The second factor is the important world events which the Czech Republic will not be able to ignore during its presidency.
Relations with the USA
In January, a new American administration will occupy the White House under the leadership of Barack Obama. Unlike the administration of George W. Bush, this administration is expected to take the position of the international community into account much more. Europeans expect that after years of American unilateralism, an era will begin under Obama in which the USA will indulge more often in listening to international institutions and will strive for more intensive transatlantic coopeation.
Another topic which both the EU and Obama consider key, and which George W. Bush for the most part ignored, is the question of climate change. The EU has taken on climate change as one of tis most important projects for the next decade. However, it is clear that without the participation of the world’s largest economy, i.e., without the active participation of the United States, this project will not show positive results no matter how hard the Europeans try. Obama, therefore, also brings hope for this key environmental protection question. A dialogue with the new American administration will be initiated during the Czech Presidency of the EU from which much is expected, and it is possible that during our presidency it will be seen whether those expectations are realistic.
EU relations with Russia in light of the Georgian crisis
At the political level, Russia has demonstrated that it has overcome the period of attenuation following its Cold War defeat and must now be reckoned with as a powerful player which knows how to effectively back up its political rhetoric with military action. The Georgian crisis also sent a different message to the Europeans regarding their dependency on Russian energy. An important pipeline runs through Georgia which could bypass Russia and through which oil could flow from the Caspian Sea into Turkey. This pipeline could deliver oil to the Nabucco pipeline, which would guarantee Europe could be less dependent on Russian oil. However, through its harsh military intervention in Georgia, Moscow has sent the Europeans a rather clear message concerning Georgia‘s eventual reliability as a transit counry for this key resource. Russia considers Georgia to be a country in its sphere of influence and is prepared to intervene against it and take the opportunity to threaten the reliability of constant oil supply to the EU. How will Europe cope with this Russian strategy? How will the EU re-evaluate its relations with Russia in the light of events in Georgia? These questions will be intensively addressed during our presidency, and our experience with Russia give us a unique opportunity to explain to our West European parterns that it will not necessarily pay off in the long run for the EU to simply accommodate Russia.
What, then, are the Czech Presidency’s specific external relations priorities?
Eastern partnership
Strengthening relations with the states of Eastern Europe is the top priority and is also related to the crisis in Georgia. While during the French Presidency the EU’s attention was focused primarily on states in the Mediterranean, the Czech Republic wants to devote more attention to negotiations with Belarus, the states of the Southern Caucusus, and Ukraine. Precisely because of the crisis in Georgia, it is necessary to clearly show Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova that the EU has something to offer them and that Russia does not have be their only main political and economic partner.
EU-Russian relations
On relations with Russia, the Czech Presidency wants primarily to open up a broad, EU-wide debate, the result of which should be a joint strategy vis-a-vis Moscow. The Czech Republic is very well aware that what weakens the EU in its negotiations with Russia is the Europeans‘ lack of unity, which Moscow excels at exploiting to its advantage. While those states which experienced Russia’s policy of expansion during the Soviet era understand the current Russian revival as a threat, the states of Western Europe view Russian expansion as completely natural and consider Russia to be a partner, despite the deficiencies of its democracy. The power of arguments and money are primarily what aid the EU in its negotiations with Russia.
Given that the experiences of the Member States with Russia ahve been so extremely different, it will not be easy to find a compromise within the EU framework. For example, the Germans often stress that Russia was a reliable supplier of oil and gas during the Cold War. In contrast, the Czech Republic has had a different recent experience with the reliability of Russian supplies, which were halted at the start of 2007 immediately after the Czechs signed the framework agreement with the US on the construction of its radar base in Brdy. At the time, the official explanation was that the halt was due to technical reasons, but Russia never precisely explained what technical flaw was involved. Thus it can be seen that while Germany is a key economic partner for Russia, and any weakening of Russia’s reputation there as a reliable energy supplier would have wide-ranging consequences, Moscow does not wear kid gloves when negotiating with a small state like the Czech Republic. Because Russia only respects the large and the strong, a joint European strategy would give the EU a very strong card to play when negotiating with Moscow.
Strengthening transatlantic ties
The Czech Republic wants to take advantage of the 60th anniversary of the founding of NATO, which occurs during our presidency, to stress the necessity of continuing to strengthen cooperation between the EU and USA. Within the EU, the Czech Republic is among those states that do not want the development of European military capability to weaken NATO’s role in Europe. According to Prague, Europe and the US face the same global challenges and threats and will handle them best if they proceed jointly. This not only concerns cooperation in security matters, but also, as mentioned above, on environmental matters. Given recent developments, another topic for transatlantic cooperation is the question of how to handle the results of the financial crisis or the energy crisis. Prague, therefore, has many topics for discussion with the new American administration and it is possible that it will welcome Barack Obama to the Czech Republic on the occasion of the EU - US summit.
EU enlargement
The Czech Republic has a unique opportunity to take advantage of two other anniversaries which fall during its presidency. The first is the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Iron Curtain. Prague, as an advocate of EU enlargement to include the countries of the Western Balkans, would like to stress that Europe will remain divided unless the Balkans become part of the EU. Another opportunity to support EU enlargement is the fifth anniversary of the accession of the new Member States to the EU, including the Czech Republic. During its presidency, Prague wants to point out the benefit to the EU of opening up to new member states.
However, the enlargement agenda will not be without its complications. The old Member States are feeling a certain exhaustion after this large wave of enlargement and have not completely adjusted to the new agenda and political culture which the states of Eastern Europe have brought into the EU institutions. This is another reason why they are in no rush to admit the states of the Western Balkans. Because any eventual accession of these states, with the exception of Croatia, is a matter of the far future, the Czech Republic will primarily be interested in sending the Western Balkans the clear signal that if they do meet the entry criteria, the EU door will be open.
The Middle East
Naturally, the Czech Republic has not set itself any unrealistic aims for finding a solution to such a long-term, complicated dispute as the Arab-Israeli conflict. Nevertheless, Prague would like to strengthen the EU’s role in the negotiations between Israel and Palestine. However, as was demonstrated immediately during the first days of the Czech Presidency and the Israeli Army operation against the radical Hamas movement in Gaza, this will not be an easy task. The EU is far from unified in its approach to the Middle East peace process and has also yet to clearly state to what degree it is willing to engage in the region beyond financial and political cooperation. Even though prior to the start of the Czech Presidenty the Deputy Prime Minister for European Affairs Alexandr Vondra claimed that strengthening Israel’s trust in the EU would contribute to strengthening the EU’s influence in the region and would make it possible for the Europeans to have greater influence during the Middle East peace process itself, the first days of the Czech Presidency have proven that in future the Middle East will not get by without the US as the main negotiator.
The Czech Presidency, therefore, does not have small goals ahead of it, nor is there a lack of tasks. Advocating for any sort of agenda in the EU will primarily concern finding a reasonable compromise among the 27 Member States. We should cross our fingers for our negotiatiors and hope they succeed in the many complicated matters they will face during the next six months.